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Even when cars were still young, futurists began
thinking about vehicles that could drive themselves, without human
help. Perhaps the best known of these conjectures was the General
Motors Futurama, the hit of the 1939 New York World’s Fair. During
the following decades interest in automated vehicles rose and fell
several times. Now, at the start of the new century, it’s worth
taking a fresh look at this concept and asking how automation might
change transportation and the quality of our lives.
Consider some of the implications of cars that could
drive themselves.
- We might eliminate the more than ninety
percent of traffic crashes that are caused by human errors such
as misjudgments and inattention.
- We might reduce antisocial driving behavior
such as road rage, rubbernecking delays, and unsafe speeds, thereby
significantly reducing the stress of driving.
- The entire population, including the young,
the old, and the infirm, might enjoy a higher level of mobility
without requiring advanced driving skills.
- The luxury of being chauffeured to your
destination might be enjoyed by the general populace, not just
the wealthiest individuals, so we might all do whatever we like,
at work or leisure, while traveling in safety.
- Fuel consumption and polluting emissions might
be reduced by smoothing traffic flow and running vehicles close
enough to each other to benefit from aerodynamic drafting.
- Traffic-management decisions might be based
on firm knowledge of vehicle responses to instructions, rather
than on guesses about the choices that drivers might make.
- The capacity of a freeway lane might be
doubled or tripled, making it possible to accommodate growing
demands for travel without major new construction, or, equivalently,
today’s level of congestion might be reduced, enabling travelers
to save a lot of time.
But is this a realistic prospect?
Or is it some Buck Rogers fantasy? Based on more than a decade’s
research at California PATH and other institutions, it is most certainly
a genuine prospect for operations on controlled-access freeway lanes.
This research has addressed issues ranging from operational concepts
to technology development, from societal and institutional issues
to the effects on transportation system capacity and safety. The
National Automated Highway System Consortium’s Demo ’97 in San Diego
provided an opportunity for visitors from around the world to experience
automated vehicles in operation under controlled conditions. The
reactions of those visitors were overwhelmingly positive.
Automating the process of driving
is a complex endeavor. Advancements in information technology of
the past decade have contributed greatly, and research specifically
devoted to the design of automated highway systems has made many
specific contributions. This progress makes it possible for us to
formulate operational concepts and prove out the technologies that
can implement them.
We can now readily visualize
your trip on an automated highway system:
Imagine leaving work at the
end of the day and needing to drive only as far as the nearest on-ramp
to the local automated highway. At the on-ramp, you press a button
on your dashboard to select the off-ramp closest to your home and
then relax as your car’s electronic systems, in cooperation with
roadside electronics and similar systems on other cars, guide your
car smoothly, safely, and effortlessly toward your destination.
En route you save time by maintaining full speed even at rush-hour
traffic volumes. At the end of the off-ramp you resume normal control
and drive the remaining distance to your home, better rested and
less stressed than if you had driven the entire way. The same capability
can also be used over longer distances, e.g. for family vacations
that leave everybody, including the “driver,” relaxed and well-rested
even after a lengthy trip in adverse weather.
Although many different technical
developments are necessary to turn this image into reality, none
requires exotic technologies, and all can be based on systems and
components that are already being actively developed in the international
motor vehicle industry. These could be viewed as replacements for
the diverse functions that drivers perform every day: observing
the road, observing the preceding vehicles, steering, accelerating,
braking, and deciding when and where to change course.
PATH researchers have
developed a road-reference and sensing system that makes it possible
to determine accurately a vehicle’s position and orientation relative
to the lane’s center. Cheap permanent magnets are buried at four-foot
intervals along the lane centerline and detected by magnetometers
mounted under the vehicle’s bumpers. The magnetic-field measurements
are decoded to determine the lateral position and height of each
bumper at accuracies of less than a centimeter. In addition, the
magnets’ orientations (either north pole or south pole up) represent
a binary code (either 0 or 1), and indicate precise milepost locations
along the road, as well as road geometry features such as curvature
and grade. The software in the vehicle’s control computer uses this
information to determine the absolute position of the vehicle, as
well as to anticipate upcoming changes in the roadway.
Other researchers have
used computer vision systems to observe the road. These are vulnerable
to weather problems and provide less accurate measurements, but
they do not require special roadway installations, other than well-maintained
lane markings.
The distances and closing rates to preceding vehicles
can be measured by a millimeter-wave radar or a laser rangefinder.
Both technologies have already been implemented in commercially
available adaptive cruise control systems in Japan and Europe. The
laser systems are currently less expensive, but the radar systems
are more effective at detecting dirty vehicles and operating in
adverse weather conditions. As production volumes increase and unit
costs decrease, the radars are likely to find increasing favor.
The equivalents of these driver muscle functions
are electromechanical actuators installed in the automated vehicle.
They receive electronic commands from the onboard control computer
and then apply the appropriate steering angle, throttle angle, and
brake pressure by means of small electric motors. Early versions
of these actuators are already being introduced into production
vehicles, where they receive their commands directly from the driver’s
inputs to the steering wheel and pedals. These decisions are being
made for reasons largely unrelated to automation. Rather they are
associated with reduced energy consumption, simplification of vehicle
design, enhanced ease of vehicle assembly, improved ability to adjust
performance to match driver preferences, and cost savings compared
to traditional direct mechanical control devices.
Computers in the vehicles and those at the roadside
have different functions. Roadside computers are better suited for
traffic management, setting the target speed for each segment and
lane of roadway, and allocating vehicles to different lanes of a
multilane automated facility. The aim is to maintain balanced flow
among the lanes and to avoid obstacles or incidents that might block
a lane. The vehicle’s onboard computers are better suited to handling
decisions about exactly when and where to change lanes to avoid
interference with other vehicles.
Some additional functions have no direct counterpart
in today’s driving. Most important, wireless communication technology
makes it possible for each automated vehicle’s computer to talk
continuously to its counterparts in adjoining vehicles. This capability
enables vehicles to follow each other with high accuracy and safety,
even at very close spacings, and to negotiate cooperative maneuvers
such as lane changes to increase system efficiency and safety. Any
failure on a vehicle can be instantly known to its neighbors, so
that they can respond appropriately to avoid possible collisions.
In addition, there should be electronic “check-in”
and “check-out” stations at the entry and exit points of the automated
lane, somewhat analogous to the toll booths on closed toll roads,
where you get a ticket at the entrance and then pay a toll at the
exit, based on how far you traveled on the road. At check-in stations,
wireless communication between vehicles and roadside would verify
that the vehicle is in proper operating condition prior to its entry
to the automated lane. Similarly, the check-out system would seek
assurance of the driver’s readiness to resume control at the exit.
The traffic management system for an automated highway would also
have broader scope than today’s traffic management systems, because
it would select an optimal route for every vehicle in the system,
continuously balancing travel demand with system capacity, and directing
vehicles to follow those routes precisely.
Most of these functions have already been implemented
and tested in experimental vehicles. All except for check-in, check-out,
and traffic management were implemented in the platoon-scenario
demonstration vehicles of Demo ’97. A single 166 MHz Pentium computer
(obsolete by standards of today’s normal desktop PCs) handled all
the necessary in-vehicle computations for vehicle sensing, control,
and communications.
The key technical challenges that remain to be mastered
involve software safety, fault detection, and malfunction management.
The state of the art of software design is not yet sufficiently
advanced to support the development of software that can be guaranteed
to perform correctly in safety-critical applications as complex
as road-vehicle automation. Excellent performance of automated vehicle
control systems (high accuracy with superb ride comfort) has been
proven under normal operating conditions, in the absence of failures.
Elementary fault detection and malfunction management systems have
already been implemented to address the most frequently encountered
fault conditions, for use by well-trained test drivers. However,
commercially viable implementations will need to address all realistic
failure scenarios and provide safe responses even when the driver
is a completely untrained member of the general public. Significant
efforts are still needed to develop system hardware and software
designs that can satisfy these requirements.
The nontechnical challenges involve issues of liability,
costs, and perceptions. Automated control of vehicles shifts liability
for most crashes from the individual driver (and his or her insurance
company) to the designer, developer, and vendor of the vehicle and
roadway control systems. Provided the system is indeed safer than
today’s driver-vehicle-highway system, overall liability exposure
should be reduced. But its costs will be shifted from automobile
insurance premiums to the purchase or lease price of the automated
vehicle and toll for use of the automated highway facility.
All new technologies tend to be costly when they
first become available in small quantities, then their costs decline
as production volumes increase and the technologies mature. We should
expect vehicle automation technologies to follow the same pattern.
They may initially be economically viable only for heavy vehicles
(transit buses, commercial trucks) and high-end passenger cars.
However, it should not take long for the costs to become affordable
to a wide range of vehicle owners and operators, especially with
many of the enabling technologies already being commercialized for
volume production today.
The largest impediment to introduction of electronic
chauffeuring may turn out to be the general perception that it’s
more difficult and expensive to implement than it really is. If
political and industrial decision makers perceive automated driving
to be too futuristic, they will not pay it the attention it deserves
and will not invest their resources toward accelerating its deployment.
The perception could thus become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It is important to recognize that automated vehicles
are already carrying millions of passengers every day. Most major
airports have automated people movers that transfer passengers among
terminal buildings. Urban transit lines in Paris, London, Vancouver,
Lyon, and Lille, among others, are operating with completely automated,
driverless vehicles; some have been doing so for more than a decade.
Modern commercial aircraft operate on autopilot for much of the
time, and they also land under automatic control at suitably equipped
airports on a regular basis.
Given all of this experience in implementing safety-critical
automated transportation systems, it is not such a large leap to
develop road vehicles that can operate under automatic control on
their own segregated and protected lanes. That should be a realistic
goal for the next decade. The transportation system will thus gain
substantial benefits from the revolution in information technology.
Steven E. Shladover, “Why We
Should Develop a Truly Automated Highway System,” Transportation
Research Record, No. 1651, pp. 66–73, 1998.
Steven E. Shladover, “Progressive
Deployment of Vehicle-Highway Automation Systems,” Sixth World Congress
on Intelligent Transport Systems, Toronto, Nov. 1999.
Steven E. Shladover, “Progressive Deployment
Steps Leading Toward an Automated Highway System,” 79th TRB Annual
Meeting, Washington, DC, January 2000, Paper No. 00-0835.
Author: Steve Shladover.
Date 09/10/2000. Steve Shladover is Deputy Director of California
PATH and program manager of Advanced Vehicle Control and Safety
Systems research at PATH.
Last update: 09/10/00
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